Állítsd be, hogy az Economx az elsők között legyen a Google-találatokban!
When greenfield investments were the rage, you were talking about rehabilitations, while at the dawn of the office development fever you were pushing leisure projects, which the market has since grown up to. How do you see it today, what kind of developments still have long-term potential?
I believe the next decade will be one of "area development" projects, developments which open up new areas, breathe new life into them, fill them up with a certain kind of mood, and build an own brand around them. Several players have already entered this segment, with significant land acquisitions carried out in and around Budapest over the past 3-4 years. A land bank has piled up, but right now the developments have come to a stop because of the economic and financial crisis. I am talking of 15-20 hectare areas such as the tip of Csepel Island, Duna City, 360 degrees, as well as Tópark and Kopaszi gát, but according to the way things are done today, partners have to be sought for projects of this magnitude.
But there is only room for a few developments of this calibre in a city the size of Budapest, and its surroundings. What can the others hope for?
In addition to "area development," the other trend that can be expected in upcoming years is the prevalence of development philosophies embracing sustainable development. Developers coming from developed countries, as well as tenants originating from these regions are increasingly sensitive to "being green." An IBM or a Morgan Stanley will not lease space in a building that generates pollution. On the long term, there is potential in projects where environmental awareness is integrated into a multifunctional project. In addition, the cost of green technologies is going down, so their use in larger investments is even more economic.
Turning to a different topic, which areas could see an increase in value in the near future from a residential market point of view?
With the completion of the Megyeri Bridge, there could be significant reserves in the price of real estate around the region of Pomáz, Budakalász, Szentendre, and Csobánka on the Buda side. The air is very good there, and the area is also less built-in. The price levels of the outer districts of Pest are dependent mainly on the suburban railway system. But on the longer term, that fate of suburban home zones is mostly a question of demographics. Until the willingness to establish families is as low as it is now, no significant rise in prices is likely on average in these areas.
So it is not really recommended as an investment. Is it a good idea at all to invest in real estate today?
If someone were to invest banking on the rental market, I am positive he would be disappointed. A lot of foreigners especially got burnt by not taking into account that the Hungarian population rents only on an occasional basis. For private individuals, I think it is a bad investment even though the value of homes rises on the long term. And I don't regard Hungarian property funds as being transparent enough so that I can recommend them to retail investors. The situation is different with institutional investors, who have the necessary expertise and also the means to influence management. In my opinion, only the market of retail space is interesting from an investment standpoint, if one is professional in selecting the location and the tenant. Those smaller "equity" property funds also have good chances in which a few investors pool together to acquire shops, and then are able to rent them for stable periods, albeit not at a very significant profit.
The permitting of high-rises is now on the agenda - has the time really come for the building of such towers in Budapest?
Yes, sooner or later it will come, and there are some locations of Budapest's public transportation infrastructure which could handle them. But three things are needed for this: finding a way to escape the hysteria of city politics, finding a developer who is capable of creating truly symbolic buildings, and selecting those public transportation hubs where high-rises can be integrated.
