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According to some calculations, "A" category office stock in Budapest could increase by more than 600 thousand square metres in 2008-2009. 73 percent of market players polled in a GKI study say they already see signs of oversupply, but it seems developers are not bothered too much by a potential further strengthening of supply-side pressure. In fact, more and more residential developers are considering shifting some of their capacities to this segment.
Looking at it from a residential developer's viewpoint, office development seems a simpler business. There are significantly less end-users whose needs have to be met, meeting expectations in terms of architectural implementation may also seem easier, and the achievable profit is also higher than the 5-10 percent that is currently possible on the residential market. In addition, office demand is less sensitive to the rise in cost of living. All that is needed in order to succeed is finding a good location and meeting basic service needs.
Looking at it from an office developer's perspective, the picture is not so clear - as the relatively stable, for years neither rising nor declining number of office developers proves -, since the majority of developments are speculative, and designing the building to meet tenants' needs is just as work-intensive a process as negotiating the right colour of tiles with homebuyers. Competition also forces developers to make continuous new innovations, and with the deluge in supply it is crucial that a product stand out from the others.
A sure winning strategy seems to be stressing mixed functionality, as these days we seem to be living in a time of large-scale, district re-forming projects anyway. More than one-third of office developers are definitely targeting these kinds of projects, stressing the advantages of having a wide range of services needed for everyday life at arm's length, as well as leisure centres to help rest and relaxation, and should one choose to do so, living in the vicinity of the workplace, thus sparing one the stress of travel.
Other developers embody multifunctionality not in the project, but in their own activities. They see the guarantee of success in concentrating on mapping out opportunities, and carrying out the best investment in a given development segment, be it residential, office, commercial or industrial.
Striving to be environmentally conscious is a progressive strategy, but for example building out capacities to use renewable energy sources could add as much as 30 thousand forints net per square metre to costs, and therefore it can be passed on to consumers only in the case of premium-category developments. At the same time, it definitely makes the building more attractive as an investment product on the longer term, as does having various documents certifying environmental consciousness.
The more efficient management of space and operation is becoming more important, and this is what some investors see bigger reserves in on the office market, and are planning their developments with this in mind. Architectural novelties coupled with economies of scale are formulated in plans for high-rises, and some developers are waiting at the starting line for the green light to turn on. Once high-rises are given the go-ahead, office deliveries will likely show even more dynamic growth than today. The leading players on the office market are facing the challenges generated by the growth of the property market with strong capital and years of experience, but new players could easily find themselves in trouble if they enter the market underestimating these expectations.
