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The research firm has upped its export growth prognosis from 11% to 12%. The move comes after a downward revision in May from 14% at the beginning of the year. GKI has consequently increased its industrial growth prediction to 5% from 3% predicted in May, although it is noted that industrial exports slowed down in the first quarter of this year, reversing the trend in 2004 when growth was fired almost exclusively by exports as domestic sales stagnated.
GKI expects the budget deficit to improve only marginally, ending the year at 4.0% of GDP when pension contributions are taken into consideration. This is still significantly higher than the euro convergence level of 3% set out in the Maastricht Stability and Growth Pact, and is also above the government's own target.
Regarding monetary policy, the central bank's tight interest rate policy has succeeded in keeping a lid on inflation, which GKI says could fall to as low as 3.8% in 2005. GKI predicts this could allow the national bank to lower rates further over the course of the year.
Real wages growth is expected to be 5% following stagnation in real wage growth last year.
