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At the same time, the "A-" long-term and "A-1" short-term foreign currency ratings on the sovereign were affirmed. The outlook is stable. "The downgrade of the local currency rating reflects the deterioration of Hungary's medium-term fiscal outlook beyond earlier expectations," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Beatriz Merino.
The general government deficit on an ESA95 basis (including costs of pension reform) is projected to reach 5.2% of GDP in 2005, broadly unchanged from last year, and above the 4.7% government target, S&P said. Despite wide-ranging controls on expenditures and a reserve equivalent to 0.8% of GDP introduced in the 2005 budget, Hungary will likely overshoot its fiscal target unless it takes additional tightening measures in 2005.
"Despite the commitment by the government to maintain fiscal discipline ahead of the 2006 elections, it may be tempted to relax its expenditure controls and implement tax cuts, which would pose additional fiscal risks. Hungary is not expected to become a member of the EMU before 2010," added Merino.
