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The research firm maintains its export growth prognosis at 12%, stressing that exports have been rising significantly faster than imports. GKI notes that the foreign trade deficit is expected to narrow to just three-quarters of last year's level, although counterbalanced in the current account balance by a rise in profit repatriation. However, some of this is expected to be reinvested, meaning that foreign direct investment will be visibly higher than last year's EUR 3 billion.
GKI also stands by its industrial growth prediction of 6%, noting that industrial exports have picked up significantly, rising nearly 10% in the first half of the year. Production growth has been driven by the consumer electronics, construction material and vehicle manufacturing sectors.
While inflation is not expected to decline further this year from its H1 level of 3.7%, GKI predicts it could drop to as low as 2.5% in 2006. With the forint remaining strong, the central bank is likely to reduce the base rate by another 50 basis points before the end of this year, to below 6%.
