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The research firm maintained its forecast concerning export growth at 12%. Industrial export growth slowed down to 5.1% in Q1, reversing the trend in 2004 when growth was driven almost exclusively by exports as domestic sales stagnated. Construction activity, however, showed 20% growth due to large-scale motorway constructions in April.
GKI expects the budget deficit to improve only marginally, ending the year at 4% of GDP when pension contributions are taken into consideration. This is still significantly higher than the euro convergence level of 3% set down in the Maastricht Treaty, and is also above the government's own target, the institute noted.
After falling sharply early in the year, inflation is stagnant, with the annual CPI expected at around 3.8% this year, GKI said. The institute said this could allow the national bank to lower rates further over the course of the year, by another 50 basis points to 6.50%.
The number of those employed stagnated at the beginning of the year, while the unemployment rate climbed to 7.2%, which is expected to decrease to 6.8% by the end of the year. Real wages are expected to increase by 5% in 2005.
