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This constitutes a downward revision from the ministry's previous GDP growth forecast of around 4% for the year, published in March. The revision is explained in part by worsening economic outlook in the past months in Germany, Hungary's largest trade partner.
Consumption by Hungarian households will also show only limited growth despite an upturn in real wage growth. As social transfers and government consumption will likely stagnate or decline due to strict fiscal policy, final consumption will grow by around 2.5% in volume terms in 2005.
The ministry believes that investment growth will be somewhat slower in 2005 than last year. While budget-funded infrastructure investments will continue, a significant drop is expected in home construction in the coming year. As a result, the ministry sees investments rising 5-7% in 2005.
Similarly, industrial output is expected to rise by 5% this year, slightly lower than the ministry's previous forecast of 5-7%. Since more than half of Hungary's industrial production is sold abroad, slowing western European growth is set to moderate Hungary's output, the ministry said.
